Problem 3: Not Looking at All Sides of a Problem

This problem is usually having a point of view on an investment situation where you may have taken someone else’s word on it or never really given the question serious thought. One common financial example of this the use of a financial advisor to assist you in buying and selling stocks, mutual funds, or other investments. Whenever I consider that advice from this kind of source, I ask several questions about the source of the advice. Some basic ones may include the following:

- Does this advisor have anything to gain or lose by my decision?

- Is this advice based on the advisors own expertise or on someone else’s?

- Is this person following their on advice on that issue?

- Is the advice based on a fair analysis or a biased analysis?

- Is it to my advantage to even consider taking this advice?

- If the advisor makes any performance claim, can the claim be backed up?

- Does the advice make sense?

- After further investigation and research on my part, does the advice still make sense?

- Does not following the advice make better sense?

The current rash of mortgage problems in the US, issues like short sales because of underwater mortgages and foreclosures, is one example of this kind of decision problem in action. Many people got into this situation because they didn’t think about the consequences of taking out a home equity loan to buy expensive toys, or the possible negative consequences of an adjustable rate loan.

There are many more questions that one can ask, but the basic point is that every decision can be looked at in more than one way. It is to your advantage to ask a few questions and do at least a little work to understand what may be behind a piece of advice.

Next Lesson: Being Overconfident In Your Predictions

Money Decision Problem 2: Solving the Wrong Problem

You can have the greatest system in the world for analyzing and solving your personal or business money problems, but you would be wasting your time if you were solving the wrong problem. This usually happens if you do not think through a problem before you start to solve it. To understand how to approach a particular problem you should understand at least these things about the problem:

1. What are the limits to problem at hand?
2. How do you define a good or a bad outcome to the decision?
3. How should you measure the outcomes?
4. What do you bring mentally and psychologically to the decision table?
5. What are other ways to look at the problem?

A Mutual Fund Example
One example of solving the wrong problem is to pursue a high rate of return from a mutual fund investments without first deciding what kind of comparison or benchmark you should use to determine if the return is high enough. For example, index mutual funds that are designed to mirror the results of the Standard and Poor’s 500 index consistently outperform rough 80% of all mutual funds. The original problem may have been how to choose mutual funds with high returns. A better problem to solve would be how choose mutual funds which consistently perform better than the S&P 500.

Final Thoughts
Remember that most problems involving money usually involve something else besides money or mathematics. If you focus on the parts of the problem that are objective and that can be measured or solved with common with equations and spreadsheets, you may miss the most important part of the problem.

Next Lesson: Not Looking at All Sides of a Problem